Assessing and projecting the global burden of thyroid cancer, 1990-2030: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Background: This study aims to assess the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of thyroid cancer between 1990 and 2030. Methods: Our study analysed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data from 204 countries, spanning 1990-2019. It focused on age-standardised thyroid cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), using the sociodemographic index (SDI) for assessing socioeconomic levels. Generalised additive models (GAMs) projected thyroid cancer trends for 2020-2030. Results: The global burden of thyroid cancer is predicted to increase significantly from 1990 to 2030. The number of thyroid cancer incidence cases is projected to rise from 233 846.64 in 2019 to 305 078.08 by 2030, representing an approximate 30.46% increase. The ASIR (age-standardised incidence rate) is expected to continue its upward trend (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = 0.83). The age-standardised death rate (ASDR) for thyroid cancer is projected to decline in both genders, more notably in women (EAPC = -0.34) compared to men (EAPC = -0.17). The burden of disease escalates with advancing age, with significant regional disparities. Regions with lower SDI, particularly in South Asia, are anticipated to witness substantial increases in thyroid cancer incidence from 2020 to 2030. The overall disease burden is expected to rise, especially in countries with low to middle SDI, reflecting broader socio-economic and health care shifts. Conclusions: This study highlights significant regional and gender-specific variations in thyroid cancer, with notable increases in incidence rates, particularly in areas like South Asia. These trends suggest improvements in diagnostic capabilities and the influence of socio-economic factors. Additionally, the observed decline in mortality rates across various regions reflects advancements in thyroid cancer management. The findings underline the critical importance of regionally tailored prevention strategies, robust cancer registries, and public health initiatives to address the evolving landscape of thyroid cancer and mitigate health disparities globally.

Association between sleep duration and psychological resilience in a population-based survey: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The study aimed to find out the association between sleep duration and psychological resilience in a population-based survey. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in August 2022, employing a cluster random sampling method to recruit community residents at Futian District in Shenzhen, China. A total of 2,445 participants aged 18 years and over were included in the study. The Brief Resilience Scale (BRS) was utilized to measure psychological resilience, and sleep duration was classified according to the American Heart Association's sleep duration categories. Multivariable linear regression was used to analyze the relationship between psychological resilience and sleep duration after adjusting for gender, age, smoking status, physical exercise frequency, body mass index (BMI), and education level. RESULTS: The participants displayed moderate levels of psychological resilience, with a mean resilience score of 3.46 (standard deviation [SD] = 0.62) and a mean sleep duration of 7.04 h (SD = 1.10). After adjusting for covariates, longer sleep duration was associated with higher psychological resilience (ß = 0.047, P < 0.05), indicating that participants with a long sleep duration had higher resilience scores than those with a short sleep duration. CONCLUSION: Longer sleep duration is positively associated with higher psychological resilience in community residents. These findings suggest that improving sleep duration may be a promising approach to enhancing psychological resilience, preventing psychological problems, and promoting overall physical and mental health development.

Corrigendum: Assessing heterogeneity of patient and health system delay among TB in a population with internal migrants in China.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1354515.].

Association between volatile organic compounds and serum neurofilament light chain in US adults.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the associations between exposure to blood volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and the level of serum neurofilament light chain (NfL) in adults. METHODS: We analyzed data from the 2013-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), including 2008 participants aged 20 to 75 years old. Multiple linear regression models were used to examine the associations between 28 VOCs and NfL after adjusting for multiple potential confounders. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) was used to examine the potential non-linear associations. RESULTS: The linear regression models showed that higher levels of 2,5-dimethylfuran (ß = 0.042, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.001, 0.096), ethyl acetate (ß = 0.118, 95 % CI = 0.008, 0.304), and m-/p-xylene (ß = 0.043, 95%CI = 0.012, 0.074) were associated with higher NfL levels. These estimates were largely consistent after adjusting for multiple confounders. CONCLUSION: The findings of our study suggest a potential association between certain volatile organic compounds (2,5-dimethylfuran, ethyl acetate, and m-/p-xylene) and blood NfL levels, implying that they may have a role in revealing neurodegeneration and influencing neurological health.

Sb-Doped Biphasic P2/O3-Type Mn-Rich Layered Oxide Cathode Material for High-Performance Sodium-Ion Batteries.

Mn-rich P2-type layered oxide cathode materials suffer from severe capacity loss caused by detrimental phase transition and transition metal dissolution, making their implementation difficult in large-scale sodium-ion battery applications. Herein, we introduced a high-valent Sb5+ substitution, leading to a biphasic P2/O3 cathode that suppresses the P2-O2 phase transformation in the high-voltage condition attributed to the stronger Sb-O covalency that introduces extra electrons to the O atom, reducing oxygen loss from the lattices and improving structural stability, as confirmed by first-principle calculations. Besides, the enhanced Na+ diffusion kinetics and thermodynamics in the modified sample are associated with the enlarged lattice parameters. As a result, the proposed cathode delivers a discharge capacity of 142.6 mAh g-1 at 0.1C between 1.5 and 4.3 V and excellent performance at a high mass loading of 8 mg cm3 with a specific capacity of 131 mAh g-1 at 0.2C. Furthermore, it also possesses remarkable rate capability (90.3 mAh g-1 at 5C), specifying its practicality in high-energy-density sodium-ion batteries. Hence, this work provides insights into incorporating high-valent dopants for high-performance Mn-rich cathodes.

Room Temperature Crystallized Phase-Pure α-FAPbI3 Perovskite with In-Situ Grain-Boundary Passivation.

Energy loss in perovskite grain boundaries (GBs) is a primary limitation toward high-efficiency perovskite solar cells (PSCs). Two critical strategies to address this issue are high-quality crystallization and passivation of GBs. However, the established methods are generally carried out discretely due to the complicated mechanisms of grain growth and defect formation. In this study, a combined method is proposed by introducing 3,4,5-Trifluoroaniline iodide (TFAI) into the perovskite precursor. The TFAI triggers the union of nano-sized colloids into microclusters and facilitates the complete phase transition of α-FAPbI3 at room temperature. The controlled chemical reactivity and strong steric hindrance effect enable the fixed location of TFAI and suppress defects at GBs. This combination of well-crystallized perovskite grains and effectively passivated GBs leads to an improvement in the open circuit voltage (Voc ) of PSCs from 1.08 V to 1.17 V, which is one of the highest recorded Voc without interface modification. The TFAI-incorporated device achieved a champion PCE of 24.81%. The device maintained a steady power output near its maximum power output point, showing almost no decay over 280 h testing without pre-processing.

Metabolic profiling of smoking, associations with type 2 diabetes and interaction with genetic susceptibility.

BACKGROUND: Smokers are at increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the underlying mechanisms are unclear. We investigated if the smoking-T2D association is mediated by alterations in the metabolome and assessed potential interaction with genetic susceptibility to diabetes or insulin resistance. METHODS: In UK Biobank (n = 93,722), cross-sectional analyses identified 208 metabolites associated with smoking, of which 131 were confirmed in Mendelian Randomization analyses, including glycoprotein acetyls, fatty acids, and lipids. Elastic net regression was applied to create a smoking-related metabolic signature. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) of incident T2D in relation to baseline smoking/metabolic signature and calculated the proportion of the smoking-T2D association mediated by the signature. Additive interaction between the signature and genetic risk scores for T2D (GRS-T2D) and insulin resistance (GRS-IR) on incidence of T2D was assessed as relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). FINDINGS: The HR of T2D was 1·73 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1·54 - 1·94) for current versus never smoking, and 38·3% of the excess risk was mediated by the metabolic signature. The metabolic signature and its mediation role were replicated in TwinGene. The metabolic signature was associated with T2D (HR: 1·61, CI 1·46 - 1·77 for values above vs. below median), with evidence of interaction with GRS-T2D (RERI: 0·81, CI: 0·23 - 1·38) and GRS-IR (RERI 0·47, CI: 0·02 - 0·92). INTERPRETATION: The increased risk of T2D in smokers may be mediated through effects on the metabolome, and the influence of such metabolic alterations on diabetes risk may be amplified in individuals with genetic susceptibility to T2D or insulin resistance.

Spatial pattern of isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis and its associated factors among a population with migrants in China: a retrospective population-based study.

Background: Isoniazid-resistant, rifampicin-susceptible tuberculosis (Hr-TB) globally exhibits a high prevalence and serves as a potential precursor to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). Recognizing the spatial distribution of Hr-TB and identifying associated factors can provide strategic entry points for interventions aimed at early detection of Hr-TB and prevention of its progression to MDR-TB. This study aims to analyze spatial patterns and identify socioeconomic, demographic, and healthcare factors associated with Hr-TB in Shanghai at the county level. Method: We conducted a retrospective study utilizing data from TB patients with available Drug Susceptible Test (DST) results in Shanghai from 2010 to 2016. Spatial autocorrelation was explored using Global Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi∗ statistics. A Bayesian hierarchical model with spatial effects was developed using the INLA package in R software to identify potential factors associated with Hr-TB at the county level. Results: A total of 8,865 TB patients with DST were included in this analysis. Among 758 Hr-TB patients, 622 (82.06%) were new cases without any previous treatment history. The drug-resistant rate of Hr-TB among new TB cases in Shanghai stood at 7.20% (622/8014), while for previously treated cases, the rate was 15.98% (136/851). Hotspot areas of Hr-TB were predominantly situated in southwestern Shanghai. Factors positively associated with Hr-TB included the percentage of older adult individuals (RR = 3.93, 95% Crl:1.93-8.03), the percentage of internal migrants (RR = 1.35, 95% Crl:1.15-1.35), and the number of healthcare institutions per 100 population (RR = 1.17, 95% Crl:1.02-1.34). Conclusion: We observed a spatial heterogeneity of Hr-TB in Shanghai, with hotspots in the Songjiang and Minhang districts. Based on the results of the models, the internal migrant population and older adult individuals in Shanghai may be contributing factors to the emergence of areas with high Hr-TB notification rates. Given these insights, we advocate for targeted interventions, especially in identified high-risk hotspots and high-risk areas.

Associations between Sleep Disorders and Impulsive-Compulsive Behaviors in Parkinson's Disease: A Prospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) and probable rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (pRBD), respectively, with impulsive-compulsive behaviors (ICB) over a 5-year follow-up in patients with early Parkinson's disease (PD). METHODS: The Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative is a multicenter cohort study based on an ongoing and open-ended registry. Longitudinal associations of sleep disorders with ICB over 5-year follow-up visits were estimated using generalized linear mixed-effects models among PD participants. RESULTS: A total of 825 PD participants were enrolled at baseline. The study sample had a median baseline age of 63.1 (interquartile range [IQR]: 55.6-69.3) years and comprised 496 (61.5%) men. Among them, 201 (24.9%) had ICB at baseline. In the generalized mixed-effects models, EDS (odds ratio [OR] =1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05, 1.12) and RBD (OR=1.07, 95% CI 1.03, 1.12) were substantially associated with higher odds of developing ICB over time in PD patients, after multivariate adjustment including age, gender, family history, GDS score, STAI-Y score, MDS-UPDRS part III score, LEDD, and disease duration. Consistent results were observed when stratifying by age at baseline, gender, and PD family history. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings suggest a longitudinal association between EDS and pRBD with an increased risk of developing ICB in patients with Parkinson's disease. The findings emphasize the significance of evaluating and addressing sleep disorders in PD patients as a potential approach to managing ICB.

Assessing heterogeneity of patient and health system delay among TB in a population with internal migrants in China.

Backgrounds: The diagnostic delay of tuberculosis (TB) contributes to further transmission and impedes the implementation of the End TB Strategy. Therefore, we aimed to describe the characteristics of patient delay, health system delay, and total delay among TB patients in Shanghai, identify areas at high risk for delay, and explore the potential factors of long delay at individual and spatial levels. Method: The study included TB patients among migrants and residents in Shanghai between January 2010 and December 2018. Patient and health system delays exceeding 14 days and total delays exceeding 28 days were defined as long delays. Time trends of long delays were evaluated by Joinpoint regression. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was employed to analyze influencing factors of long delays. Spatial analysis of delays was conducted using ArcGIS, and the hierarchical Bayesian spatial model was utilized to explore associated spatial factors. Results: Overall, 61,050 TB patients were notified during the study period. Median patient, health system, and total delays were 12 days (IQR: 3-26), 9 days (IQR: 4-18), and 27 days (IQR: 15-43), respectively. Migrants, females, older adults, symptomatic visits to TB-designated facilities, and pathogen-positive were associated with longer patient delays, while pathogen-negative, active case findings and symptomatic visits to non-TB-designated facilities were associated with long health system delays (LHD). Spatial analysis revealed Chongming Island was a hotspot for patient delay, while western areas of Shanghai, with a high proportion of internal migrants and industrial parks, were at high risk for LHD. The application of rapid molecular diagnostic methods was associated with reduced health system delays. Conclusion: Despite a relatively shorter diagnostic delay of TB than in the other regions in China, there was vital social-demographic and spatial heterogeneity in the occurrence of long delays in Shanghai. While the active case finding and rapid molecular diagnosis reduced the delay, novel targeted interventions are still required to address the challenges of TB diagnosis among both migrants and residents in this urban setting.

Association between cytomegalovirus seropositivity and all-cause mortality: An original cohort study.

To examine the association between cytomegalovirus (CMV) seropositivity and all-cause mortality in a nationwide cohort of US adults. We obtained data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (1988-1994), including 16,547 participants aged 18-90 years old with CMV serology assessments. Mortality status was ascertained until December 2019 using the National Death Index linkage data. The Cox proportional hazard model was applied to estimate the association between CMV seropositivity and mortality. During a median follow-up of 26.3 years, 6,930 deaths were recorded. CMV seropositivity was associated with a higher hazard of all-cause mortality after adjusting for attained age, sex, and ethnicity (HR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.36, p < 0.001). The magnitude of the association attenuated slightly after adjusting further for body mass index, family income, smoking status, diabetes, and self-reported cancer history (HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.23, p = 0.04). While the association was observed for both men and women, it was only statistically significant among non-Hispanic white people (HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.26, p = 0.001) but not among other ethnic populations. CMV seropositivity might be an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality among US adults. If the findings are validated in an independent population, further research is needed to unveil the biological mechanisms driving the increased mortality with CMV seropositivity.

Genetically determined telomere length and its association with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and interstitial lung disease in biobank Japan: A Mendelian randomization study.

Importance: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and interstitial lung disease (ILD) have been linked to shorter telomere length (TL). While understanding this association has critical clinical implications for respiratory diseases, previous studies exploring these associations were conducted in European populations. The present study aims to investigate this relationship in an Asian population. Objective: To examine the causal relationship between leukocyte TL and COPD and ILD in an Asian population. Design: Setting, and Participants: We used a genome-wide association study summary statistics-based two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) design to investigate the association between leukocyte TL, genetically predicted by nine single-nucleotide polymorphisms and the risk of COPD and ILD. Participants were Japanese individuals enrolled in the Biobank Japan Project, including 3315 COPD patients and 806 ILD patients. Exposure: Leukocyte TL was genetically predicted by nine single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Results: The inverse-variance weighted estimates showed a significant inverse association between leukocyte TL and COPD (odds ratio [OR] = 0.78; 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.64, 0.95; P = 0.01) and ILD (OR = 0.29; 95 % CI: 0.14, 0.61; P = 0.001), respectively. All sensitivity analyses yielded consistent results. The MR-Egger regression intercept test showed no evidence of horizontal pleiotropy (Pintercept: COPD, 0.56; ILD: 0.70). Conclusion: and Relevance: Our findings suggest that leukocyte telomere shortening may causally increase the risk of COPD and ILD. These results highlight the potential importance of TL for these respiratory diseases.

Optoelectronic synapses based on a triple cation perovskite and Al/MoO3 interface for neuromorphic information processing.

Optoelectronic synaptic transistors are attractive for applications in next-generation brain-like computation systems, especially for their visible-light operation and in-sensor computing capabilities. However, from a material perspective, it is difficult to build a device that meets expectations in terms of both its functions and power consumption, prompting the call for greater innovation in materials and device construction. In this study, we innovatively combined a novel perovskite carrier supply layer with an Al/MoO3 interface carrier regulatory layer to fabricate optoelectronic synaptic devices, namely Al/MoO3/CsFAMA/ITO transistors. The device could mimic a variety of biological synaptic functions and required ultralow-power consumption during operation with an ultrafast speed of >0.1 µs under an optical stimulus of about 3 fJ, which is equivalent to biological synapses. Moreover, Pavlovian conditioning and visual perception tasks could be implemented using the spike-number-dependent plasticity (SNDP) and spike-rate-dependent plasticity (SRDP). This study suggests that the proposed CsFAMA synapse with an Al/MoO3 interface has the potential for ultralow-power neuromorphic information processing.

Associations between psychological resilience and epigenetic clocks in the health and retirement study.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the associations between psychological resilience and epigenetic clocks assessed by DNA methylation age predictions. We used data from 4018 participants in the Health and Retirement Study. Multivariable linear regression models were used to estimate the association between psychological resilience and epigenetic clocks adjusted for age, sex, race, body mass index, smoking status, and years of education. Thirteen epigenetic clocks were used in our analysis and were highly correlated with one another. A higher psychological resilience score was associated with slower DNA methylation age acceleration for the majority of epigenetic clocks after multivariable adjustment. These findings imply that people with a higher level of psychological resilience may experience slower DNA methylation age acceleration and biological aging.

Conversions between metabolically unhealthy and healthy obesity from midlife to late-life.

INTRODUCTION: Metabolically healthy obesity may be a transient phenotype, but studies with long follow-up, especially covering late-life, are lacking. We describe conversions between cross-categories of body mass index (BMI) and metabolic health in 786 Swedish twins with up to 27 years of follow-up, from midlife to late-life. METHODS: Metabolic health was defined as the absence of metabolic syndrome (MetS). We first visualized conversions between BMI-metabolic health phenotypes in 100 individuals with measurements available at ages 50-64, 65-79, and ≥80. Next, we modeled conversion in metabolic health status by BMI category in the full sample using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: The proportion of individuals with MetS and with overweight or obesity increased with age. However, one-fifth maintained a metabolically healthy overweight or obesity across all three age categories. Among those metabolically healthy at baseline, 59% converted to MetS during follow-up. Conversions occurred 56% more often among individuals with metabolically healthy obesity, but not overweight, compared to normal weight. Among those with MetS at baseline, 60% regained metabolic health during follow-up, with no difference between BMI categories. CONCLUSIONS: Conversions between metabolically healthy and unhealthy status occurred in both directions in all BMI categories. While conversions to MetS were more common among individuals with obesity, many individuals maintained or regained metabolic health during follow-up.

Interplay of body mass index and metabolic syndrome: association with physiological age from midlife to late-life.

Obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS) share common pathophysiological characteristics with aging. To better understand their interplay, we examined how body mass index (BMI) and MetS jointly associate with physiological age, and if the associations changed from midlife to late-life. We used longitudinal data from 1,825 Swedish twins. Physiological age was measured as frailty index (FI) and functional aging index (FAI) and modeled independently in linear mixed-effects models adjusted for chronological age, sex, education, and smoking. We assessed curvilinear associations of BMI and chronological age with physiological age, and interactions between BMI, MetS, and chronological age. We found a significant three-way interaction between BMI, MetS, and chronological age on FI (p-interaction = 0·006), not FAI. Consequently, we stratified FI analyses by age: < 65, 65-85, and ≥ 85 years, and modeled FAI across ages. Except for FI at ages ≥ 85, BMI had U-shaped associations with FI and FAI, where BMI around 26-28 kg/m2 was associated with the lowest physiological age. MetS was associated with higher FI and FAI, except for FI at ages < 65, and modified the BMI-FI association at ages 65-85 (p-interaction = 0·02), whereby the association between higher BMI levels and FI was stronger in individuals with MetS. Age modified the MetS-FI association in ages ≥ 85, such that it was stronger at higher ages (p-interaction = 0·01). Low BMI, high BMI, and metabolic syndrome were associated with higher physiological age, contributing to overall health status among older individuals and potentially accelerating aging.

Association between cytomegalovirus infection and cancer­related mortality in the US adults.

PURPOSE: In a nationwide cohort of US adults, an exploration of the association between cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection and cancer­related mortality was conducted. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We acquired data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (1988-1994), including 11,138 individuals who were aged 18-90 years at enrollment and underwent CMV serology assessments. CMV infection was determined by CMV antibody testing. Cancer­related mortality status was ascertained until December 2019 utilizing the National Death Index linkage data and determined by neoplasms. The Cox proportional hazard model was applied to estimate the potential association between CMV infection and the risk of cancer-related mortality. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 26.1 years, 1514 cancer­related deaths were identified in the study cohort. After adjusting for age, sex, and ethnicity, CMV infection was associated with a higher hazard of cancer­related mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.39, 95 % CI: 1.13, 1.70). Further adjustments for body mass index, family income, and smoking status slightly attenuated the magnitude of the association (HR: 1.24, 95 % CI: 1.00, 1.53). However, no significant interaction was observed among gender by subgroup analysis. CONCLUSIONS: CMV infection might be an independent risk factor for cancer­related mortality among US adults. Future studies could focus on the mechanisms through which CMV infection influences mortality induced by neoplasms and develop targeted interventions to reduce the risk.

Causal inference and observational data.

Observational studies using causal inference frameworks can provide a feasible alternative to randomized controlled trials. Advances in statistics, machine learning, and access to big data facilitate unraveling complex causal relationships from observational data across healthcare, social sciences, and other fields. However, challenges like evaluating models and bias amplification remain.

Surface Modulation via Conjugated Bithiophene Ammonium Salt for Efficient Inverted Perovskite Solar Cells.

The metal halide perovskite absorbers are prone to surface defects, which severely limit the power conversion efficiencies (PCEs) and the operational stability of the perovskite solar cells (PSCs). Herein, trace amounts of bithiophene propylammonium iodide (bi-TPAI) are applied to modulate the surface properties of the gas-quenched perovskite. It is found that the bi-TPAI surface treatment has negligible impact on the perovskite morphology, but it can induce a defect passivation effect and facilitate the charge carrier extraction, contributing to the gain in the open-circuit voltage (Voc) and fill factor. As a result, the PCE of the gas-quenched sputtered NiOx-based inverted PSCs is enhanced from the initial 20.0% to 22.0%. Most importantly, the bi-TPAI treatment can largely alleviate or even eliminate the burn-in process during the maximum power point tracking measurement, improving the operational stability of the devices.

Discovery of all-inorganic lead-free perovskites with high photovoltaic performance via ensemble machine learning.

Growing evidence shows that all-inorganic lead-free perovskites hold promise for solving stability and toxicity problems in perovskite solar cells. However, the power conversion efficiency of all-inorganic perovskites cannot match that of hybrid organic-inorganic perovskites. To face the challenges of efficiency, stability and toxicity simultaneously for application in perovskite solar cells, this study conducts a high-throughput materials search via ensemble machine learning for nearly 12 million all-inorganic perovskites to obtain candidates with non-toxicity and excellent photovoltaic performance. Based on experimental data, models for structure identification and band gap classification are established for , and a physics-inspired multi-component neural network is proposed as part of the exploration of the model's logical structure. It is found that extracting key features for input into the model and treating non-key features as supplements make model learning easier and are more effective in reducing the model parameters. Then, based on established ensemble models as well as the new criteria of ion radius difference and the optimization rules of toxicity and cost, over 80 000 candidates are screened. Among the 34 lead-free identified with suitable band gaps and negative formation energies through first principles calculations, 17 candidates have theoretical power conversion efficiencies over 20%. The Debye temperature of 10 lead-free , basically Bi-based compounds, is greater than 350 K, which is advantageous for suppressing nonradiative recombination and thermally induced degradation.